Draft 3.5 February 2025
EXPANDED OUTLINE INCLUDING DISCUSSION NOTES [142 pp]
EXPANDED OUTLINE [28 pp]
I. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
II. KEY CHALLENGES
Economic Justice
Ecological Integrity
Technological Responsibility
III. ARCHETYPAL SCENARIOS
Techno-Progressive World
Balanced Equitable World
Green Sustainability World
Discussion / Selected Topics / Fundamental Conundrums
A Framework for Evaluating the Scenarios
IV. POLITICAL ECONOMY, GEOPOLITICS, CIVILIZATIONS, IDEOLOGY AND FOUNDATIONAL WORLDVIEWS
Political Economy: Alternatives for the Long Run
Geopolitical Structure: Power and Allegiance over Space and Time
Civilizational Communities and Identities: Who are we?
Ideology: Nationalism, Beyond the Left-Right Divide, and Extremes
Foundational Worldviews: God, Nature, History
V. SUMMARY DISPLAY AND COMMENTS
VI. WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
DISCUSSION NOTES [114 pp]
ATTACHMENTS [630 pp]
A. Definitions of Growth, Well-Being and Related Key Concepts
B. Scenarios of Global Development
B.1 – Review of Past Quantitative Scenarios
B.2 – Model A and the Archetypal Scenarios
B.3 – Review of Narrative Scenarios
B.4 – The Limits to Growth Debate
B.5-A – The Challenge of World Population Decline - NARRATIVE
B.5-B – The Challenge of World Population Decline - DATA
B.5-C – The Challenge of World Population Decline - MODEL
C. Economic Justice
C.1 – Ideology, Wealth and Income
C.2 – Proposals to Reduce Economic Inequality
C.3 – Broader Proposals that Address Economic Inequality
C.4 – How Much is Enough and What is Fair?
D. Ecological Integrity
D.1 – Climate Change
D.2 – Scenarios Using the Nordhaus DICE and RICE Models
D.3 – Energy Regimes
D.4 – Assessing Global Catastrophic Risk
D.5-A – Energy-Climate Scenarios of Excursion-and-Return - NARRATAIVE
D.5-B – Energy-Climate Scenarios of Excursion-and-Return - MODEL
D.5-C – Energy-Climate Scenarios of Excursion-and-Return - DATA
D.6 - Voluntary Simplicity Survey
E. Political Economy, Geopolitics, Civilizations, Ideology and Foundational Worldviews
E.1 – Steady State Political Economy
E.2 – Geopolitical Structure
E.3 – Nationalism, Populism, Liberalism, Post-Liberalism and more
E.4 – Beyond the Left-Right Divide
E.5 – Very Long-Range Planning, Policy and Action
F. Technology and Consequences
F.1 – Innovation Trajectories
F.2 – Human Genetic Modification
F.3 – The New Politics of Artificial Intelligence
F.4 – Human Augmentation and Related Topics
F.5 – Extraterrestrial Colonization
F.6 – Technocracy: Culture, Ideology, Power and Politics
G. First and Last Things
G.1 – Moral and Political Theology, Social Teachings and Practice
G.2 – Religion, Philosophy, Metaphysics and Mysticism
G.3 – Religion, Science and the Human Future
BIBLIOGRAPHY [67 pp]
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